Most recent common ancestor

In genetics, the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of any set of organisms is the most recent individual from which all organisms in the group are directly descended. The term is often applied to human genealogy.

The MRCA of a set of individuals can sometimes be determined by referring to an established pedigree. However, in general, it is impossible to identify the specific MRCA of a set of individuals, but an estimate of the time at which the MRCA lived can often be given; such estimates can be given based on DNA test results and established mutation rates, or by reference to a non-genetic genealogical model.

The term MRCA is usually used to describe a common ancestor of individuals within a species. It can also be used to describe a common ancestor between species. To avoid confusion, last common ancestor (LCA) or the equivalent term concestor is sometimes used in place of MRCA when discussing ancestry between species.

The term MRCA may also be used to identify a common ancestor between a set of organism via specific gene pathways. Mitochondrial Eve and Y-chromosomal Adam are examples of such MRCAs.

MRCA of all living humans

Tracing one person's lineage back in time forms a binary tree of parents, grandparents, great-grandparents and so on. However, the number of individuals in such an ancestor tree grows exponentially and will eventually become impossibly high. For example, a single individual alive today would over 30 generations, going back to about the High Middle Ages, have 2³⁰ or about 1.07 billion ancestors, more than the total world population at the time.

In reality, an ancestor tree is not a binary tree. Rather, pedigree collapse changes the binary tree to a directed acyclic graph.

Consider the formation, one generation at a time, of the ancestor graph of all currently living humans with no descendants. Start with living people with no descendants at the bottom of the graph. Adding the parents of all those individuals at the top of the graph will connect (half-)siblings via one or two common ancestors, their parent(s). Adding the next generation will connect all first cousins. As each of the following generations of ancestors is added to the top of the graph, the relationship between more and more people is mapped (second cousins, third cousins and so on). Eventually a generation is reached where one or more of the many top-level ancestors is an MRCA from whom it is possible to trace a path of direct descendants all the way down to every living person at the bottom generations of the graph.

The MRCA of everyone alive today could thus have co-existed with a large human population, most of whom either have no living descendants today or else are ancestors of a subset of people alive today. The existence of an MRCA does therefore not imply the existence of a population bottleneck or first couple.

It is incorrect to assume that the MRCA passed all of his or her genes (or indeed any single gene) down to every person alive today. Because of sexual reproduction, at every generation, an ancestor only passes half of his or her genes to the next generation. The percentage of genes inherited from the MRCA becomes smaller and smaller at every successive generation, eventually decreasing to zero (at which point the Ship of Theseus paradox arises), as genes inherited from contemporaries of MRCA are interchanged via sexual reproduction.

Time estimates

Depending on the survival of isolated lineages without admixture from Modern migrations and taking into account long-isolated peoples, such as historical tribes in central Africa, Australia and remote islands in the South Pacific, the human MRCA was generally assumed to have lived in the Upper Paleolithic period.

However, Rohde, Olson, and Chang (2004), using a non-genetic model, estimated that the MRCA of all living humans may have lived within historical times (3rd millennium BC to 1st millennium AD). Rohde (2005) refined the simulation with parameters from estimated historical human migrations and of population densities. For conservative parameters, he pushes back the date for the MRCA to the 6th millennium BC (p. 20), but still concludes with a "surprisingly recent" estimate of a MRCA living in the second or first millennium BC (p. 27). An explanation of this result is that, while humanity's MRCA was indeed a Paleolithic individual up to early modern times, the European explorers of the 16th and 17th centuries would have fathered enough offspring so that some "mainland" ancestry by today pervades even remote habitats. The possibility remains, however, that a single isolated population with no recent "mainland" admixture persists somewhere, which would immediately push back the date of humanity's MRCA by many millennia. While simulations help estimate probabilities, the question can be resolved authoritatively only by genetically testing every living human individual.

Other models reported in Rohde, Olson, and Chang (2004) suggest that the MRCA of Western Europeans lived as recently as AD 1000. The same article provides surprisingly recent estimates for the identical ancestors point, the most recent time when each person then living was either an ancestor of all the persons alive today or an ancestor of none of them. The estimates for this are similarly uncertain, but date to considerably earlier than the MRCA, according to Rohde (2005) roughly to between 15,000 and 5,000 years ago..

MRCA of different species

It is also possible to use the term MRCA to describe the common ancestor of two or more different species. In the past, the term MRCA was used interchangeably with last common ancestor (LCA) to denote both the common ancestor within a species and that between species. But MRCA is now more frequently used to describe common ancestors within a species. On the other hand, LCA now describes the common ancestor between two species.

The concept of the last common ancestor is described in Richard Dawkins' book, The Ancestor's Tale, in which he imagines a 'pilgrimage' backwards in time, during which we humans travel back through our own evolutionary history and as we do so are joined at each successive stage by all the other species of organism with which we share each respective common ancestor. Dawkins uses the word "concestor" (coined by Nicky Warren) as an alternative to LCA.

In The Ancestor's Tale, following the human evolutionary tree backwards, we first meet the concestor which we share with the species that are our closest relatives, the chimpanzee and bonobo. Dawkins estimates this to have occurred between 5 and 7 million years ago. Another way of looking at this is to say that our (approximately) 250,000-greats-grandparent was a creature from which all humans, chimpanzees and bonobos are directly descended. Further on in Dawkins' imaginary journey, we meet the concestor we share with the Gorilla, our next nearest relative, then the Orangutan, and so on, until we finally meet the concestor of all living organisms, known as the last universal ancestor.